Friday, October 2, 2009
It appears that things have gotten even worse for the Democrats in next year's midterm elections. Most alarming, however, is that independents are breaking for the Republican candidate in a general election matchup by wide margins in most cases.
Chris Dodd is being crushed by the front runner for the Republican nomination, Rob Simmons, 49% to 39% in deep blue Connecticut. He is in a statistical tie with my personal favorite candidate, hardline libertarian Republican Peter Schiff. Schiff has little name recognition outside of hardcore political junkies and Ron Paul fans, so for him to be tied with an incumbent speaks volumes about how dissatisfied Connecticut voters are with Dodd.
Harry Reid is truly out of touch with voters in his home state of Nevada. Nevada has trended blue over the last two election cycles, but evidence suggests that that may be coming to an end. Reid loses by 7 points to businessman Danny Tarkanian, and 10 points to former Nevada GOP Chairperson Sue Lowden, who declared her candidacy today.
Appointed Democratic Senator Michael Bennet's bid to win the seat on his own is in jeopardy. He loses the seat to former Lt. Governor Jane Norton by 9.
It looks as if Republicans have a good chance of holding the seat being vacated by retiring senator Judd Gregg. Republican Kelly Ayotte leads Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes by 7 in the ARG poll and by 8 in the Rasmussen poll
Conservative Democrat Blanche Lincoln seems to be in trouble in Arkansas. Arkansas has moved hard to the right in recent years, but traditionally elects Democratic senators. Lincoln loses by narrow margins to 4 hypothetical contenders One of the people she loses to is Tom Cox, who is the head of the TEA party in Arkansas. Certainly not to denigrate Mr. Cox, but this is a clear sign that people in Arkansas are simply going to vote Republican. Lincoln is in more trouble than these numbers suggest. Expect her to move fairly hard to the right over the next year to attempt to hold the seat. This makes it seriously unlikely that she supports ObamaCare.