Trouble in Paradise? Latest Poll Numbers From Public Policy Are Out

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Public Policy is a left-leaning polling firm that releases in depth polls each month. I generally don't like their polls very much, as they use a very small sample size; about 600 voters.

The latest poll is here. For comparing trends, there are also results for April and May.

President Obama's approval rating is down a point and his disapproval is up 3 points, going from 53/41 in April to 52/44 in June. But a deeper look into the details of the poll brings up some very notable points:

  • Obama's approval rating among men has slipped considerably; from 50/45 in April to 48/49 in June.
  • In a hypothetical matchup with Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, Palin has increased her lead among base conservatives from 63/29 in April to 74/16. She has cut Obama's lead among independents by 2 points; from 44/51 in April to 41/46 in June.
  • Palin's favorability among moderates is up from 28/67 in April to 33/58 in June. This is a more left-leaning demographic, as many liberals refer to themselves as moderate due to the negative connotation associated with the word "liberal."
  • The biggest increases are in Palin's favorability ratings among independents, a group many thought she would be unable to reach. In April, her favorability among independents was 38/51. In June, it is now 44/42, with 14% undecided.
This poll was conducted in the middle of Palin's feud with David Letterman, so this could provide some evidence that Palin benefitted.

The slips for Obama are inevitable and will likely continue for some time. Evidence has existed that support for his policies has fallen considerably in recent weeks, with the American people becoming increasingly weary of soaring debt and government takeover of private enterprise.

Prediction: Obama to 49/49 approval overall by next month. Palin's recovery to repair her image will be slow and steady.


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